Kentucky 6: New Poll Fuels Democratic Optimism

Kentucky 6: New Poll Fuels Democratic Optimism Republicans won Kentucky’s 6th District by 26 points in 2024, but Democrats believe the seat belongs on the House battlefield in 2026. After falling short in the Republican wave of 2010, Andy Barr was elected to Congress two years later and never looked back — save for a high-profile race against Democrat Amy McGrath in 2018. When Barr left his seat this cycle to run for the Senate, it didn’t really look like Republicans would have much trouble keeping the district in the GOP column. But a new poll obtained by Inside Elections suggests the race is becoming increasingly competitive. GOP former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado led Democratic military veteran Zach Dembo 42-39 percent in a June 24-28 survey conducted by GQR for the Dembo campaign, with 19 percent either undecided or voting for a third-party candidate. Alvarado had higher name ID, but also higher negatives. He had a 21 percent positive/20 percent negative rating compared to 22 percent positive/12 percent negative for Dembo. According to the memo, President Donald Trump is underwater by 7 points in a district where he finished ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by 15 points in 2024 and by 11 points over Joe Biden in 2020. In contrast, Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear had a 58 percent favorable/36 percent unfavorable rating in the poll. It’s the second Democratic poll in recent months to show the race is competitive. A Public Policy Polling survey conducted April 24-25 for New Politics, and first reported by Politico, showed Dembo and Alvarado tied at 37 percent. Alvarado, a physician and state Senator from 2015 to 2023, isn’t a stranger to this district – or experiencing defeat in it. He ran as GOP Gov. Matt Bevin’s running mate for lieutenant governor in 2019; the pair finished behind Beshear by 11 points in the 6th District en route to a statewide loss. Alvarado later moved to Tennessee to serve as the state health department’s commissioner under GOP Gov. Bill Lee and returned to Kentucky in 2025 to run for this seat. Dembo, a former federal prosecutor and Navy JAG officer, is running his first campaign for office. He has the backing of Beshear, for whom Dembo served as a policy advisor and legislative director after resigning from his post at the US Department of Justice Civil Rights Division. In this race, he’s called out the president for weaponizing the DOJ and called the system “broken” in a campaign ad. The University of Michigan Law graduate is making gains in the fundraising race with $625,000 raised in the second quarter, with nearly $500,000 cash on hand, according to the campaign. But even as Democrats have been surging in special elections across the country, districts that Trump carried by more than a dozen points have looked out of reach. Alvarado was endorsed by the president and outpaced Dembo in fundraising through the pre-primary period. Dembo had $455,000 in the bank on April 29. Second quarter FEC reports are due July 15. Under normal conditions, the district votes Republican, although it has supported Democrats recently. Beshear carried it by nearly 20 points in his 2023 re-election campaign, and he’s obviously supporting Dembo in this race. But voters often weigh federal races differently when control of Congress is on the line. Inside Elections still rates Kentucky’s 6th District as Solid Republican, but if Election Day draws closer and there’s more evidence that Alvarado isn’t getting the separation that’s typical for Republicans in the seat, we’ll adjust our rating accordingly. Overall, if Republicans are having to worry about defending Kentucky’s 6th, then the only question is how big the Democratic House majority will be next year. GQR (D) for Dembo campaign, June 24-28 (440 V) – General election ballot: Alvarado over Dembo 42% – 39%, 19% third party/undecided.